Numbers Guru Nate Silver Predicts Majority Support for Gay Marriage in 44 States by 2020

statesequalityMaster statistician, baseball numbers guy, and near-perfect Electoral College prognosticator, Nate Silver, used his numbers-crunching magic to try and figure out when each state would see majority support for gay marriage; well, surprise!  South Carolina, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi are the only states that, by 2020, Nate predicts will lack a 50% or better support for same-sex marriage.  Alright, so if you live in one of those six states, you’re gay (or support gay marriage), this isn’t good for near-term prospects, but on the flip-side, Silver believes that, in less than 7 years, 44 out of the fifty United States will have popular support for marriage rights.  In fact, according to his accounting, 31 (more than half) states, along with the District of Columbia, will see majority polling support.  It’s his belief that if a national ballot referendum were put to the test, it would pass by 2016 as well.

Of course, a positive Supreme Court decision could have a similar effect on the surge in support as President Barack Obama’s ‘evolution’ on the matter, too.


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